Yesterday I commented that Bill Richardson’s 4.5% probably wasn’t good enough for him to continue. In fact, speculation in the media right now is that he will announce his withdrawal on Thursday. It will be interesting to see if he announces his support for any of the other three Democratic party candidates.

Michigan’s primary is Tuesday, followed by Nevada’s caucuses on Saturday, the nineteenth. Michigan is an open primary where voters don’t have to declare party affiliation to vote. This helps Obama and McCain. I believe Obama will win in Michigan, even though the Democratic candidates agreed not to compete. This may be a moot point for Obama as the Democratic party said it will refuse to seat the Michigan delegates due to sanctions for their early primary date which violates party rules.

It will be tight between McCain and Romney. Romney has to take his home state, or his candidacy will start to fade away, and will likely edge out McCain. It will be close.

I think Clinton will take Nevada for the Democrats and Romney will take it for the Republicans. South Carolina is also the nineteenth for the Republicans but is the twenty-sixth for the Democrats. South Carolina will be interesting as the voting starts to include larger segments of non-white voters.

It’s fun to make these predictions but it is akin to predicting the path of a hurricane. It’s looks easy, but it isn’t, and you suspect you’re probably wrong.

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